Sam (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
l33tminion) wrote2009-04-11 05:21 pm
l33tminion) wrote2009-04-11 05:21 pm
Entry tags:
Megatrends: Going Global
The third chapter in Naisbitt's book isn't nearly as exciting as the previous two, since the trend in question, globalization, is an obvious one, and one that's indeed happened in a big way. Most of the interesting reasons behind this trend were already discussed in the first chapter. There's a bit of funny-in-retrospect in that Naisbitt criticizes the US government's thinking that we can solve our problems by bailing out Chrysler and invading the middle east, which is more or less still where we're at, policy-wise.
It will be interesting to see how the other side of this trend plays out. It will be a novel situation, since the disruption of shipping will likely be way faster than the disruption of telecommunications (sure, eventually it might get tricky to maintain oceanic cables or launch telecom satellites, but for now that remains a very effective investment).
Decline in oil supply will make shipping expensive eventually (way eventually, since it takes quite a bit of transportation cost to make up the cheap-ness of third-world wages), but currently prices are way down due to crashing demand. The shipping industry could well end up in an airline-industry-like competition vs. costs dilemma, where charging too low is like shooting yourself in the foot and charging too high is like shooting yourself in the face. Wonder how many industries will end up in this odd state: Vital to the global economy but impossible to make money in.
It will be interesting to see how the other side of this trend plays out. It will be a novel situation, since the disruption of shipping will likely be way faster than the disruption of telecommunications (sure, eventually it might get tricky to maintain oceanic cables or launch telecom satellites, but for now that remains a very effective investment).
Decline in oil supply will make shipping expensive eventually (way eventually, since it takes quite a bit of transportation cost to make up the cheap-ness of third-world wages), but currently prices are way down due to crashing demand. The shipping industry could well end up in an airline-industry-like competition vs. costs dilemma, where charging too low is like shooting yourself in the foot and charging too high is like shooting yourself in the face. Wonder how many industries will end up in this odd state: Vital to the global economy but impossible to make money in.