Megatrends: Take a Vote

[l33tminion]

Trend #7 of Naisbitt's book, "Representative Democracy to Participatory Democracy", continues the decentralization theme of the past two chapters. It's less interesting than previous chapters, so I'll make this post a brief rundown of predictions, putting in bold the stuff I think Naisbitt got right:

1. Rise of "a well-educated electorate".
2. "The death of the two-party system". (Despite Naisbitt's "there are 535 political parties" metaphor, party affiliation is a very good predictor of policy votes (even on previously "non-partisan" issues), and third parties are still marginalized.)
3. "The political left and right are dead." (Sort of true, but that does not a participatory democracy make.)
4. The rise of initiative and referendum systems. (Naisbitt gets the pros and cons of this right, too, and even mentions gay rights specifically... although that last falls under the old futurist pastime of predicting the present.)
5. Corporations are more politically active, while shareholders, employees, and consumers are more active in trying to influence corporations. (But who's successful, and how successful?)
6. The Baby Boomers in particular push various reforms, which ones change as they age.

The chapter concludes that, "The new leader is a facilitator, not an order giver." That certainly seems to be the case this year. But with this particular trend, it's not a case of more is always better. Representative democracy (with expert, decisive leaders) still has its advantages, and the US political system still seems to be working out how much participation is the right amount.