COP15 by the Numbers

[l33tminion]

The "not happening but actually pretty moderate by the scientific community's standards" numbers:

• 60% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050 (including reductions that actually happen in the developed world, not just mandated by the developed world)
• lower atmospheric carbon dioxide to 350PPM
• global average temperature increases by 1.5°C before stabilizing
• $100B/year for disaster mitigation and investment in alternative energy in developing nations (mostly the latter)

The "'compromise' solution supported by the US, so that's what will be maybe almost done until the next time we elect a Republican president" numbers:

• 17% percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2020 (6% from 1990 levels, mostly achieved by buying carbon offsets (i.e. we would have razed that bit of rainforest but we didn't, look at all the carbon emissions we "saved") little reduction of emissions in the developed world)
• atmospheric carbon dioxide remains >>350PPM
• global average temperature increases by 2°C before stabilizing (the UN climate scientists predict 3°C)
• $10B for disaster mitigation and investment in alternative energy in developing nations (mostly the former)

Anyways, there seem to have been no big surprises on Friday: The G77 didn't walk out for reals, developing nations will take their Hobson's choice, US politics remains largely unswayed by basically every climatologist's opinion that the current spate of global warming is caused by human pollution (but don't expect that they are swayed by the disproportionately-skeptical know-nothings either). Obama talked a good talk on moral leadership, but did little of that himself (not that political martyrdom would have been productive). Real economic growth will undoubtedly require investment in alternative energy in developing nations, but the Obama administration is counting on enough of that coming reactively from the private sector (at least enough to prevent disasters here), or they expect that any more expensive alternative is politically unfeasible.

So yeah, no surprises.