Sam (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
l33tminion) wrote2020-04-11 10:48 pm
l33tminion) wrote2020-04-11 10:48 pm
Faces Covered
Four weeks in.
The IHME model is thinking the first outbreak wave is past its peak nationally (i.e. mostly in NYC). Though I'm worried that model's assumptions are over-optimistic. Boston's peak has been pushed lower and later, so maybe still 1-3 weeks off. Unclear.
This article was one of the most interesting things I read today, on things that thwarted alarms being raised within the government about the pandemic well in advance of serious action on mitigation. In particular, the primary source document they link to, a series of email threads among a group of healthcare experts within and adjacent to major government agencies that call themselves "Red Dawn", is fascinating. (If a bit jargony, note NPI = non-pharmaceutical intervention, TLC = targeted layered containment.) Not sure if they're a formal or informal working group. Maybe formal since the person kicking off the threads is Dr. Duane Caneva, Chief Medical Officer of the Department of [redacted] (i.e. Homeland Security, this one is a really dumb redaction unless there are multiple Duane Canevas who are CMOs for major government agencies).
The local authorities have somewhat predictably gone from "masks are unnecessary" to "masks are recommended" (presumably not quite yet to "mandatory"), so I started acquiring some reasonable-ish face coverings. At any rate, it's nice to have something forward-looking to do.
And I guess I should say something about the other big news, that we know (insofar as it wasn't already known) that the presumptive Democratic nominee for President is Joe Biden (insofar as anything can be known these days). Not my first choice, not my second choice, not last, but probably not third? Biden turned out a pretty broad coalition of voters whose enthusiasm for Biden seems to be most dramatically reflected in voting for Biden in large numbers. I hope at least that Biden will turn out voters in the general like he did in the primary. And that progressives will continue their fight.
The IHME model is thinking the first outbreak wave is past its peak nationally (i.e. mostly in NYC). Though I'm worried that model's assumptions are over-optimistic. Boston's peak has been pushed lower and later, so maybe still 1-3 weeks off. Unclear.
This article was one of the most interesting things I read today, on things that thwarted alarms being raised within the government about the pandemic well in advance of serious action on mitigation. In particular, the primary source document they link to, a series of email threads among a group of healthcare experts within and adjacent to major government agencies that call themselves "Red Dawn", is fascinating. (If a bit jargony, note NPI = non-pharmaceutical intervention, TLC = targeted layered containment.) Not sure if they're a formal or informal working group. Maybe formal since the person kicking off the threads is Dr. Duane Caneva, Chief Medical Officer of the Department of [redacted] (i.e. Homeland Security, this one is a really dumb redaction unless there are multiple Duane Canevas who are CMOs for major government agencies).
The local authorities have somewhat predictably gone from "masks are unnecessary" to "masks are recommended" (presumably not quite yet to "mandatory"), so I started acquiring some reasonable-ish face coverings. At any rate, it's nice to have something forward-looking to do.
And I guess I should say something about the other big news, that we know (insofar as it wasn't already known) that the presumptive Democratic nominee for President is Joe Biden (insofar as anything can be known these days). Not my first choice, not my second choice, not last, but probably not third? Biden turned out a pretty broad coalition of voters whose enthusiasm for Biden seems to be most dramatically reflected in voting for Biden in large numbers. I hope at least that Biden will turn out voters in the general like he did in the primary. And that progressives will continue their fight.