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Perspective on 2010 Midterms
Nov. 2nd, 2010 01:30 amIf the Democrats stay sufficiently in control of Congress, the half-measures that barely kept our wreck of an economy from collapse will continue. Otherwise, they won't.
It seems likely that Republicans will take the House and unlikely that they will take the Senate. If they take both, that would mean some very difficult veto decisions for Obama. If they take the House, expect some interesting use of the House's investigative powers. If they take the Senate, expect 51 votes to become surprisingly effective again (or suddenly renewed talk about amending the Senate rules). Even if they don't take either, expect their efforts at stalling anything even remotely important to get significantly more effective.
The state elections are more interesting than the congressional elections this time. Many states are in the midst of budget crises, and whatever you think of deficit spending, states simply don't have the borrowing power of the federal government (and some have bound themselves not to use the borrowing power they do have). Many states have significant ballot issues up for vote, too. MA Questions 1 and 3 would have dramatic effects if passed. California (that ballot initiative all-star) Prop 19 is interesting, mostly not because I particularly care about whether marijuana is legalized (though I think the current prohibition is a terrible policy), but rather because it has the potential to be a new nullification crisis. Colorado has a proposed constitutional amendment that would define "person" in their constitution (in their law in general?) as a human being from the moment of conception. And so on.
It seems likely that Republicans will take the House and unlikely that they will take the Senate. If they take both, that would mean some very difficult veto decisions for Obama. If they take the House, expect some interesting use of the House's investigative powers. If they take the Senate, expect 51 votes to become surprisingly effective again (or suddenly renewed talk about amending the Senate rules). Even if they don't take either, expect their efforts at stalling anything even remotely important to get significantly more effective.
The state elections are more interesting than the congressional elections this time. Many states are in the midst of budget crises, and whatever you think of deficit spending, states simply don't have the borrowing power of the federal government (and some have bound themselves not to use the borrowing power they do have). Many states have significant ballot issues up for vote, too. MA Questions 1 and 3 would have dramatic effects if passed. California (that ballot initiative all-star) Prop 19 is interesting, mostly not because I particularly care about whether marijuana is legalized (though I think the current prohibition is a terrible policy), but rather because it has the potential to be a new nullification crisis. Colorado has a proposed constitutional amendment that would define "person" in their constitution (in their law in general?) as a human being from the moment of conception. And so on.
