I was conversing with
theheritic in a post about
tarriffs and whether US policy is likely to take a turn towards protectionism when he made
a curious prediction: That Obama would be a one-term president but that the Democrats would win the 2012 election.
Now, I can see either of those things happening, but not both at the same time. I think it would take some pretty extraordinary circumstances for the Democrats to be in so much trouble as to abandon an incumbent, but not in so much trouble as to lose. (There are a few scenarios in which that could happen, if the Democrats are disgraced but the Republicans are split, for example, but I don't think any of those are very likely.) Still, it's an interesting and specific prediction, and I'm a fan of interesting and specific predictions.
Another community member asked
asked if an incumbent American president had ever failed to secure their party's nomination, and I had to do some digging to figure out the answer. (Starting
here.) I thought what I found was interesting enough to clean up and repost on my own journal:
- Two past presidents failed to get their party's nomination after serving two terms, stepping down (in the tradition of Washington), and then coming back one term later:
Ulysses S. Grant in 1880 and
Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 (at which point he decided to form his own party,
splitting the Republicans in that election)
- Three failed to get renomination after being elected vice president, then becoming president when the president died:
Millard Fillmore in 1852,
Andrew Johnson in 1868 (after being impeached and nearly thrown out of office), and
Chester A. Arthur in 1884. (
Lyndon B. Johnson doesn't fit in this group, he was elected to a full term in 1964 and didn't seek reelection in 1968.)
-
James K. Polk didn't seek renomination in 1848 because he was dying. He died on June 15, 1849, three months after finishing his term.
-
Rutheford B. Hayes was elected by one electoral vote (while substantially behind in the popular vote) in
1876. Hayes had promised in 1876 not to seek a second term in 1880, and he didn't.
-
James Buchanan almost fits. He didn't seek renomination in 1860, but by that point his political party was split and he was disgraced.
- Only
Franklin Pierce matches the scenario perfectly. He sought and failed to attain renomination in 1856, but his political party still won that election.
The numbers: Of the 42 people who have served as president, there are 33 who were elected president. (Four presidents died in office, four were assassinated, one resigned, the current president is the 44th but
Cleveland counts twice.) 31 were elected with both the popular and electoral vote in non-disputed elections, of that pool two failed to get the renomination for political reasons, in one of those cases their party still won. Of course, that doesn't tell you much about probabilities with regard to Barack Obama, at least not without asking something about how the level of political volatility at present compares with that just before the Civil War.