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Maybe Just Wear the Masks
May. 24th, 2020 02:16 pmTen weeks down. Five more weeks (at least) before daycare is open. I'm hoping we get at least a bit of time of back towards normal.
"Towards normal" is going to require keeping SARS-CoV-2 contained while people return to work or whatever. Which is why it's a bit dismaying that masks have been politicized almost immediately, in the dumbest possible way, since masks are mitigation that lets people get back to work.
I think the reaction comes from the top, where "deny there's a problem" has gone pretty quickly to "deny there's still a problem". But at this point, that requires some really strained readings of the numbers. The estimates of the IFR can't be that high without implying things like "more than 100% of NYC was infected". 0.5% of 50% of 328M is 820k, and in the unmitigated-fast-spread scenario, those first two numbers are both low. Without something being pretty substantially different from what it was in March, we end up back where we were in March. (Even in the hardest-hit areas, 10-20% immunity probably isn't substantial enough.)
At least things are staying contained locally so far. But I sure am worried we'll mess this up. For example, Governor Baker pushing religious services into the earliest part of the lifting of restrictions due to pressure from the Trump administration. Looking at the distribution of super-spreading events, this seems like not the best idea. At least maybe hold off on the indoor singing?
Work gave me Friday off for an extra long weekend, which somehow is managing to feel like an actual long weekend, though I'm not doing much of anything in particular. Got takeout from The Independent on Saturday night. The Union Square Farmers Market starts up next weekend, and I'm looking forward to that.
"Towards normal" is going to require keeping SARS-CoV-2 contained while people return to work or whatever. Which is why it's a bit dismaying that masks have been politicized almost immediately, in the dumbest possible way, since masks are mitigation that lets people get back to work.
I think the reaction comes from the top, where "deny there's a problem" has gone pretty quickly to "deny there's still a problem". But at this point, that requires some really strained readings of the numbers. The estimates of the IFR can't be that high without implying things like "more than 100% of NYC was infected". 0.5% of 50% of 328M is 820k, and in the unmitigated-fast-spread scenario, those first two numbers are both low. Without something being pretty substantially different from what it was in March, we end up back where we were in March. (Even in the hardest-hit areas, 10-20% immunity probably isn't substantial enough.)
At least things are staying contained locally so far. But I sure am worried we'll mess this up. For example, Governor Baker pushing religious services into the earliest part of the lifting of restrictions due to pressure from the Trump administration. Looking at the distribution of super-spreading events, this seems like not the best idea. At least maybe hold off on the indoor singing?
Work gave me Friday off for an extra long weekend, which somehow is managing to feel like an actual long weekend, though I'm not doing much of anything in particular. Got takeout from The Independent on Saturday night. The Union Square Farmers Market starts up next weekend, and I'm looking forward to that.
