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We Are Going Back (to Cleveland)
Nov. 6th, 2024 07:39 pmAmericans have voted and it seems our President will once again be this guy. A lot of it seems to come down to "when there's inflation, some Americans will just flip the lever". (People hate unemployment, too, when it happens to them, but inflation happens to everyone.) But lot of it comes down to (however little it conforms to my taste) "Trump is liked, and Harris is not". There was a lot of ticket-splitting this election in Trump's favor: North Carolina is most notable for Dems winning five of six state-wide races while Harris lost, Dem Senators won Michigan and Wisconsin while Harris lost. It seems like Casey will lose Pennsylvania, but that remains as of yet too close to call long after the Presidential race in the state was called for Trump. Arizona hasn't been called, but Trump is likely to win and Lake likely to lose.
Harris 2024 did worse than Biden 2020 among virtually every cross-section. It was broad-based. Gen X have taken their place on the Boomer-throne as the generation that utterly prevents America from having anything nice. (Seniors have actually cooled a hair on Republicans because they might actually gut Social Security and Medicare this time and also tried to kill them all for the sake of the economy during COVID.) But Gen Z men in particular are also taking a hard-right turn. With luck like this America's going to end up with SK-level gender politics, which is real, real worrying.
Not doing a "reasons why Harris lost" breakdown (or even a "why the polls underestimated Trump"; they did by a little, but it doesn't seem that interesting, likely voter models just continually struggle with the guy's unique appeal). Nate Silver does a good enough job with that. Some of it's real "what can you possibly do about that?" stuff. Biden certainly should have stepped away from running for reelection much earlier. (And maybe he should've made a different choice for VP.) I'm hearing second-hand that some people cited the lack of a competitive Dem primary as a cause for them voting Trump over Harris, and that seems an insane (and probably dishonest) reason to prefer Trump over Harris. But people hate having the establishment govern their choices, and there are clearly no sly sophisticates trying to arm-twist anyone into thinking that voting for Trump is a good idea. Biden saved America from the disaster that was Trump, only to deliver America right back into the disaster that is Trump.
Harris should have gone on Rogan, I guess. In hindsight, seems like it couldn't have made matters worse.
2025 seems poised to be worse than 2017. And the years of the first Trump administration were a mess, despite starting in relatively sunny circumstances. This isn't the first Trump administration, but it is the first Presidential administration of the Party of Trump. This Trump administration won't (sometimes repeatedly) stock State, Defense, and Nat Sec posts with inveterate Trump-haters (apparently) who resist his (allegedly) brilliant ideas. Also, this Trump is really not holding it together physically or mentally and 2016 Trump didn't really have it together in the first place.
Moloch has seen its shadow and we're slated for four more years of chaos. Unfortunately, we will see how it goes.
Harris 2024 did worse than Biden 2020 among virtually every cross-section. It was broad-based. Gen X have taken their place on the Boomer-throne as the generation that utterly prevents America from having anything nice. (Seniors have actually cooled a hair on Republicans because they might actually gut Social Security and Medicare this time and also tried to kill them all for the sake of the economy during COVID.) But Gen Z men in particular are also taking a hard-right turn. With luck like this America's going to end up with SK-level gender politics, which is real, real worrying.
Not doing a "reasons why Harris lost" breakdown (or even a "why the polls underestimated Trump"; they did by a little, but it doesn't seem that interesting, likely voter models just continually struggle with the guy's unique appeal). Nate Silver does a good enough job with that. Some of it's real "what can you possibly do about that?" stuff. Biden certainly should have stepped away from running for reelection much earlier. (And maybe he should've made a different choice for VP.) I'm hearing second-hand that some people cited the lack of a competitive Dem primary as a cause for them voting Trump over Harris, and that seems an insane (and probably dishonest) reason to prefer Trump over Harris. But people hate having the establishment govern their choices, and there are clearly no sly sophisticates trying to arm-twist anyone into thinking that voting for Trump is a good idea. Biden saved America from the disaster that was Trump, only to deliver America right back into the disaster that is Trump.
Harris should have gone on Rogan, I guess. In hindsight, seems like it couldn't have made matters worse.
2025 seems poised to be worse than 2017. And the years of the first Trump administration were a mess, despite starting in relatively sunny circumstances. This isn't the first Trump administration, but it is the first Presidential administration of the Party of Trump. This Trump administration won't (sometimes repeatedly) stock State, Defense, and Nat Sec posts with inveterate Trump-haters (apparently) who resist his (allegedly) brilliant ideas. Also, this Trump is really not holding it together physically or mentally and 2016 Trump didn't really have it together in the first place.
Moloch has seen its shadow and we're slated for four more years of chaos. Unfortunately, we will see how it goes.
